Visa Projects 4.5% Holiday Sales Growth. Strip Out Inflation and It's 1.1%

More than half of shoppers told Visa they want travel and live events this holiday. Then 27% of that same group said they plan to put their money on physical gifts instead (CNBC). Only 15% of that same group are putting experiences for other people first (CNBC).

That gap is the whole story. And it lands on your quote desk this month, whether you're selling solar systems or kitchen remodels.

Visa's new report: the wish list and the wallet don't match

Visa released the report Thursday. More than half of the people Visa surveyed ranked trips and live events first on their holiday wish lists (CNBC).

The spending answer came back different. Of those respondents, just 15% are putting other people's experiences first, while 27% plan to favor physical gifts (CNBC).

"There is some interesting trade-offs there," Michael Brown, Visa's principal U.S. economist, told CNBC (CNBC).

The survey covered about 4,660 U.S. adults, all 18 or older, and was designed to mirror the wider population (CNBC).

So the person requesting your estimate is not in a free-spending mood. They want the thing. They're just guarding the cash. Why? The next section has the hard numbers, and one of them is ugly.

Airfares moved first. Your customer's budget followed.

Brown blamed the gap on pricier travel, lower consumer sentiment and shoppers hunting for value (CNBC).

Start with fares, because that's the loudest number in the story. Fares in September ran more than 22% above the same month a year earlier, per the consumer price index (CNBC). Overall consumer prices climbed 3.7% from a year earlier in September, pushed up by energy costs (CNBC). Airlines lifted ticket prices this year because fuel bills jumped by billions. Even if fuel gets cheaper, executives expect fares to stay high (CNBC).

Visa's forecast has more people celebrating the holidays "a little bit closer to home" (CNBC).

Then the income split, which is the part I'd print and tape to the shop wall. Households above $200,000 were the only group that spent more on trips leaving from Nov. 1 onward, versus the prior year's stretch (CNBC). Other income brackets cut back on trips (CNBC).

And value shopping is already moving. About a third of shoppers earning under $100,000 told Visa they'll trade down to cheaper brands or stores for gifts (CNBC).

Now the number that touches your P&L. Visa's forecast calls for holiday sales growth of 4.5% over last year, though inflation accounts for much of it (CNBC). Strip out those price hikes and sales are projected to grow only 1.1%, down from 1.3% in the 2025 holiday season (CNBC).

Brown said these numbers need to be read through the lens of inflation and where consumers think prices are heading. "I think that weighed heavily on consumer psychology this season," he told CNBC (CNBC).

Which raises the only question that matters on your side of the desk: when a guarded buyer reads your quote, what do they actually see?

What this means if you sell solar or remodeling (my read)

Everything in this section is my opinion. None of it is something Visa reported.

Scenario one: solar. Visa found that about a third of consumers making under $100,000 plan to trade down to cheaper brands or stores for gifts (CNBC). My read is that the same reflex fires when they read your system quote. Picture a homeowner who books an estimate Tuesday, gets your number Thursday, and immediately texts a second installer for a comparison. Last year they might have signed on the second visit. This year they're running a spreadsheet. If your only move is a lower price, you've taught them the price is the product.

Scenario two: remodeling. Visa expects more people to mark the holidays nearer to home (CNBC). Picture a family that skips the trip and spends two weeks in a kitchen they've wanted to update. The want is real and it's staring at them daily. The wallet is still locked. The contractor who walks in with a finish schedule, an allowance line and a clear payment sequence beats the one who reads a total off a sheet of paper. Same job, same price, different close rate.

Scenario three: the higher-end lead. Just one income bracket — those above $200,000 — spent more on trips (CNBC). Picture a homeowner in that bracket who books a consult in November, then goes quiet until January. My read: that isn't a dead lead. It's a lead on a different calendar. The owner who drops them loses to the owner who books the January revisit on the spot.

The common thread: your buyer isn't saying no. They're saying prove it.

How to use this in the next seven days

1. Pull every unsold quote from the last 30 days. Open your CRM or your spreadsheet, filter for anything sent but not signed, and sort by dollar value. Write down the top 10. Block 45 minutes tomorrow and call each one. Not email. Call. Time cost: under an hour.
2. Rewrite your first follow-up so value comes before price. Most follow-ups open with a check-in. Yours should open with something the customer gets. Type the new version once, save it as a template, use it all month.
3. Add a one-page list of what's included to every quote. Line items, not paragraphs. For a remodel, that's demo, materials, labor, permits and the change-order rule. For solar, that's panels, inverter, mounting, permits and the timeline. The guarded buyer wants to see where the money lands.
4. Ask the money question on the first visit. Not what's your budget — ask what they planned to spend and what they'd cut if it ran over. One question, asked out loud, saves you a week of chasing.
5. Check your ads against the word value. Open the last three ads you ran and read them as a stranger. If they promise luxury and the customer is switching to lower-cost stores (CNBC), you're paying for clicks that were never going to close.
6. Build the January list now. Anyone who said after the holidays goes into a named list with a date. Set the reminder today.
7. Count your follow-ups. Take the number of quotes you sent last month and the number you touched three or more times. If the second number is smaller, that's your leak, not your ad budget.

Here are two scripts you can steal this week.

Solar, day-two text: Hi [name], it's [you] from [company]. Your roof numbers are ready. Before we talk total, want the one-page breakdown of the three line items that decide what you actually pay?

Remodel, after the estimate: Hi [name], [you] here. I split your kitchen estimate into three buckets: must-do now, can wait a year, and where the money goes if you upgrade. Want that before you compare bids?

Neither script promises a discount, and neither mentions your competitor. Both give the guarded buyer something to hold.

Mistakes I see owners make with a report like this

• Reading 4.5% as real demand and buying more leads. Strip inflation and it's 1.1% (CNBC). More traffic into a weak follow-up just makes the leak bigger.
• Cutting price instead of adding a reason. A value shopper who gets a discount learns to ask for another one.
• Writing off the under-$100,000 buyer. They're the one-third switching stores (CNBC). In my experience, they still buy. They just comparison-shop harder.
• Going quiet on the high earners until spring. That group is still spending (CNBC). Keep the January date.