Tariffs Added $30 Billion in Costs. Dealers Absorbed 4.5% of the Increase.

Canada's trade minister says the midterm results will not change Canada's trade stance. Tariffs on vehicles built in Canada are still unresolved after the August talks fell apart. And Cox Automotive says tariffs added $30 billion in costs while dealers absorbed 4.5% of the increase.

Canada Says the Midterms Change Nothing

Canada's trade minister says the U.S. midterm results will not move how Ottawa handles trade talks with Washington, and tariffs on vehicles built in Canada are still unresolved for U.S. dealers. Dominic LeBlanc, the Canadian minister who handles U.S. trade ties, said the result would not meaningfully change his government's priorities, per a Reuters report. He told reporters Wednesday that the vote won't shift his government's work, and he plans to speak with Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Commerce Secretary, and Jamieson Greer, the Trade Representative, in the next few days.

That's the part that matters if you're holding inventory or quoting jobs this month. The political story changed. The tariff story did not.

Trump said Tuesday that the two countries are close to a deal. Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, said there was still work to do and that Washington had let some demands go. The two also signaled progress in a weekend conversation, with Carney saying both sides will keep working toward an agreement in the coming weeks. But no final terms have been announced.

A deal that is close is not a deal that is signed. Until it is, the cost pressure sits where it has been sitting — on your side of the table.

Why the August Talks Blew Up

In August, negotiators weighed lowering the 25% tariff on vehicles built in Canada to 15%. Industry officials said a wider credit for North American content could bring the effective rate down to single digits. That would have been real money back in your gross.

Then, on Aug. 23, the talks collapsed. The U.S. then put 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods. Carney announced retaliatory tariffs that start Sept. 8. GM and Ford both build vehicles in Canada, which leaves them exposed to the unresolved tariffs. Tariffs also became a big issue in northern border states, including Michigan and Maine, before the midterms.

There's a longer fuse too. Trump said in June he was not looking to renew USMCA. Without a confirmed renewal, the pact shifts to annual reviews and runs out in 2036. For now, it is still in force.

So you have a live negotiation, a collapsed round of talks, and a trade agreement with a clock on it. That's the backdrop for every price you set this quarter.

The Number That Should Get Your Attention

Cox Automotive says tariffs added about $30 billion in costs in a year and lifted average MSRP by 10.4%. Consumers paid 5.9% more on average. Dealers absorbed 4.5%.

Look at that split. My read on the Cox Automotive numbers above: the customer paid more than half of the increase. You ate the rest. That 4.5% came out of gross, not out of some abstract budget line. On a store doing real volume, that's the difference between a good month and a month where you're explaining yourself to the bank.

Here's my read on the 5.9%: your customers have already shown they will pay more. That's the half of this story you can actually use. The 4.5% is the half you have to manage.

And nothing in this week's news changes it. LeBlanc's position is steady. The deal isn't signed. Which means the question isn't whether costs move — it's whether you've built your pricing and your lead flow to survive it.

What This Means If You Sell Anything With a Price Tag (My Read)

Over $75 million in online sales, built two companies to eight figures, and built multiple 8-figure sales teams. When input costs move and the deal isn't done, the pressure shows up in three places: your price, your ad spend, and your follow-up. Here's how I'd think about it in your world.

Picture a solar installer quoting a system in a market where the customer has been shopping for three weeks. Your cost on hardware moved. You can't hide it in the quote anymore, so you either shave margin or you have a price conversation. If you shave, you need more volume to hit the same number. More volume means more leads, and more leads means your cost per lead has to hold. That's the whole game.

Picture a remodeling contractor who quoted a kitchen six weeks ago and the customer finally calls back ready to sign. The number you quoted was built on costs from six weeks ago. Honor it blindly and you just donated your profit to be liked. Handle it badly and you lose the job to someone who hasn't done the math yet.

Picture either business running the same ad budget it ran last year. Same spend, higher cost per booked job, and the owner blames the leads. Usually it isn't the leads. It's that the price of everything upstream moved and the follow-up never got tighter.

My read: when costs are rising and the deal is unresolved, the businesses that hold their margin are the ones that get faster and cleaner on the stuff they actually control. Not the ones waiting on Washington. Which leaves one question — what do you actually do before Friday?

Seven Things I'd Do This Week

None of this needs a new platform. It needs an hour and a willingness to look at numbers you've been avoiding.

1. Pull your last 90 days of gross per deal, not just units. Write down the average gross on your last 20 closed jobs, then the same period last year. If the gap is bigger than you thought, you now know what the 4.5% looks like in your business. Thirty minutes.

1. Re-check every quote older than 30 days before you sign it. Open each one, look at the cost inputs, and if they moved, have the conversation early — not at the kitchen table with the family watching.

1. Time your first response to a new lead. Take yesterday's leads and check the timestamp on the first outbound call or text. If the gap is measured in hours, that's the cheapest fix on this list.

1. Rewrite your follow-up so it doesn't sound like a robot. A solar lead that went quiet should get a short, human note: what changed since you talked, and a request for five minutes this week.

1. Send a price-hold note to your open remodeling quotes. Tell the customer you can hold the number through a set date, and that after that you'll have to re-price it with your supplier.

1. Track cost per booked job, not cost per click. Divide last month's ad spend by the number of jobs you actually booked from it. That's the number that has to survive a 10.4% sticker move.

1. Put your three biggest cost inputs on one page. Hardware, labor, whatever moves your price. Update it every Monday. Ten minutes a week keeps you from quoting last quarter's numbers.

Do those seven and you'll know more about your own margin than you did last week.

Mistakes I See Owners Make

• Waiting for the deal to be signed before you re-price anything. Finalized terms have not been announced. You can't run a business on a maybe.
• Eating the whole increase to keep the sale. Buyers already paid 5.9% more on average. You don't have to absorb everything to stay competitive.
• Cutting ad spend first. Fewer leads at a higher cost per job is how a slow quarter turns into a bad year.
• Letting follow-up slip because you're busy. The lead you didn't call back is the most expensive thing in the building.