RV Prices Up 23%: The Slow-Season Lesson HVAC and Roofing Owners Miss

Heading into the slow months, RV and camper wholesale prices are 23% above year-ago levels. That gain came on thinner volume and a richer mix of units, not a demand surge. And the report points at one window as the clearest margin opening of the year. It is not spring.

What NPA Just Put Out

National Powersport Auctions published its November market report, and the top number is a big one. RV and camper average wholesale prices came in 23% above year-ago levels, while slipping 6% from the prior three-month average.

Up hard on the year. Down a little on the quarter. Both are true, and NPA explained why in the same report.

That explanation is the part most owners skim. It is also the part that decides whether the slow months pay you or cost you.

Why a 23% Jump Is Not What It Looks Like

NPA said the year-over-year gain came from thinner volume and a richer mix of units. In plain words, what sold changed. It was not a surge in demand.

A thin market full of nicer units can look like a hot market on a chart. It is not the same thing, and it does not mean you can price anything you want and expect it to move.

NPA also said November follows the usual pattern, with retail and wholesale traffic slowing down until spring. Normal. Expected. And it is the reason the best window in that report sits in the quiet months instead of the busy ones.

The Margin Window They Named

Here is the line I would frame. NPA said the spread between what you pay in November and what you can retail it for in March is the best margin window of the year.

Read that as a business owner and it says: buy when nobody is bidding, sell when everybody is shopping. The money is in the calendar, not in the unit.

Selection is not the problem, either. NPA said inventory is deep across travel trailers, motorhomes, campers and fifth wheels, so buyers have choices heading into the slow months. Choices are how you get picky, and picky is how you protect margin.

NPA gave two rules to go with it. First: "Set a maximum bid before you buy and stick to it", and factor in carry cost through the winter. Second: "Clean, retail-ready units continue to command a premium."

NPA also said it winterizes all RV units, so inventory bought through the lanes is protected, and it now offers shrink wrapping for units kept outside or stored for a long time.

Which leaves one warning in that report that owners tend to skim right past.

The Trade Warning Buried in the Report

NPA told dealers to be careful about book values on trades, because in most categories the auction numbers are still under the JD Power book numbers.

My read: a book value is a reference point, not an offer. If you hand over real money based on a number the live market is not paying, you eat that gap later, usually at the worst possible time.

That trap has a twin waiting in every trade you take this winter. And in the trucks and machines already parked on your lot.

What This Means If You Run HVAC or Roofing Crews (My Read)

Everything in this section is my opinion. Over $75 million in online sales, built two companies to eight figures, and built multiple 8-figure sales teams. This report is not really about RVs.

The pattern is bigger than that. The money gets made in the slow month and collected in the busy one.

Picture an HVAC company in the shoulder weeks. The schedule thins out. The crew is doing maintenance calls and the owner is watching the bank balance. That is the same month a smart owner lines up next season's capacity — vans, equipment, techs, financing — while everyone else waits for the phone to ring. Same logic as a November buy and a March sale.

Picture a roofing contractor in the cold months. Jobs slow, crews get shuffled, and the easy move is to go quiet on marketing until the weather turns. The report argues the opposite: the slow window is when you buy, clean up and get ready, so that when demand shows up you are the one with the crew and the capacity.

Picture either owner trading in a work truck. The dealer quotes a book number, your gut says it feels low, and you sign anyway because you need the truck on Monday. NPA's warning fits you exactly: be careful about book values on trades.

So here is what I would actually do this week.

How to Use This Week

1. Write your number down before you shop. Before you look at a truck, a machine or a used unit, set a maximum and stick to it, the way NPA tells dealers to. Ten minutes with a notepad. It is the cheapest way to stop yourself from overpaying.

1. Add the carry cost before you say yes. NPA says to factor carry cost through the winter into the number. For your business that is insurance, payments, storage and every week the thing sits still before it earns a dollar.

1. Check trade values against live listings, not the book. NPA's caution on book values applies to whatever you are trading in. Pull two or three live listings for the same truck or machine and compare. Fifteen minutes.

1. Use the slow weeks to make what you own retail-ready. NPA called the slow months a practical time to get units cleaned up and ready to sell before spring shoppers come back. Same play for you: clean the fleet, fix the wraps, organize the shop so a busy week does not bury you.

1. Call the customers who went quiet. Not a newsletter. A call. Keep it short, give them a specific time, and make it easy to say yes.

1. Fix the front of your funnel. Pick one thing and finish it: how fast a new lead gets a reply, where the phone rings after hours, whether your request-a-quote form actually reaches a human. One fix. Put a date on it.

1. Set the week you will do all this again. NPA's whole point is timing. Put a reminder on the calendar for the same week next month, so the slow season does not slide by while you are busy being busy.

Mistakes to Avoid

• Buying volume you cannot carry. A cheap unit with a heavy carry cost is not cheap.
• Trusting one number on a trade. Book value and live market value are not the same, and that gap comes out of your pocket.
• Going dark in the slow months. That is exactly when your competitors stop calling and your phone gets easier to answer.
• Buying cheap instead of sellable. NPA said clean, retail-ready units hold a premium. Sellable beats cheap every time.